Monday, April 27, 2009

Fixed Income Strategy

Each year when I would attend annual metal commodity conferences part of ceremony was handing out the awards to those who had made the best predictions. Out of the several hundred guesses about the price development of several metals such a gold, aluminum and nickel, it was usual that the outliers were the ones that won. The distribution was the vast majority within several percentage points of the current price and a few nuts miles away. The winners were almost always the nuts.

Right now, the informed opinion is that long term bond prices are going to begin to fall any day. History has a way of making conventional wisdom look foolish. So slowly slowly and the more confident one is, the more slowly should be the entries.


John Barnyak